Now that the holidays are over, it’s time to get back on track and back to doing the work to help you live your best life in retirement. Remember, when we are planning for retirement, we are making important decisions that are going to affect the rest of our lives, with incomplete information. I say this all the time but it needs to be reinforced so that we can plan appropriately, but at the same time, leave flexibility in those plans. We do not know the future of your health, healthcare, the economy, tax rates, investment performance, inflation, and we definitely do not know how long you're going to live. These are only a few of the items that need to be addressed and I already have email ideas for the topics in bold, bouncing around in my head. Today we are going to tackle the topic of estimating how long you are going to live.
My father-in-law was giving me a hard time about quoting him in my last email, regarding his pessimism when it comes to his future life at 90 years old. Therefore, I figured I would pick on him some more, today. He's 59, so he’s in the process of planning for his time after he is done working. Well, fortunately (or maybe unfortunately, because I keep talking about him), he has someone around that deals with this every day and we get into some discussions at Sunday dinners. In thinking through his future, he was planning around the average life expectancy of a male in the US; 74.8 years old. However, he was underestimating his life expectancy because 74.8 takes into account males of all ages, including those that have already passed away. What you really need to be looking at, is what the life expectancy is for an individual of your gender and race that has already attained your same age. In his case, the average life expectancy of a white male, that is 59 today, is 80.8 years old. That’s a six year difference, which is a HUGE difference when you are planning your financial future.
In the planning process, we have to put a number on how many years we think we are going to live. No matter what information we include in our estimate, knowing an exact age that we will live to is truly impossible. However, we need a starting point to help guide us now, with our decision making. My default age for planning is 90 for males and 95 for females. (Through discussions regarding family history, we adjust those numbers, individually.) I generally like to overestimate, though, as underestimating can create problems with our financial plans. Now, I also like to use the American Academy of Actuaries USA Longevity Illustrator to give us another piece of the puzzle. It asks a few basic questions; age, gender, retirement age, smoking and health (poor, average, excellent), to give you the probability of living to a certain age. Using the Longevity Illustrator for my father-in-law, gives him a 55% chance of living to 85 years old and a 34% chance of living to 90 years old. That means that over half of the males alive in the U.S., that are 59 years old now, will live past 85, and who knows who will end up on which side of that number. Clearly, using the “average” alone, doesn’t give us the whole story. What is the probability that you will live past the average? As you can see, we really need to think through this when we are setting up long-term plans.
Now, add in another factor to consider; we spend more money in the first part of our retirement than we do in the later part of retirement. We’ve been dreaming of that day and (hopefully) developed some plans to do all the things we want to do, once our primary obligation is not showing up to work. Those plans usually require spending some of that money you have saved, which you know, I encourage. Here are two models as to how this plays out in real life: Retirement Spending Smile and Retirement Spending Stages.
Under the Retirement Spending Smile model, the thought is that you spend more money in the first part of retirement and that number decreases as you go through retirement. It will then rise again, later in life, as you are prone to dealing with more health problems. With the Retirement Spending Stages model, you have three different stages in retirement: The “go go” years, the “slow go” years and the “no go” years. These stages reflect how our bodies are changing throughout life and how those changes have an effect on your spending. I use this model (Retirement Spending Stages) in our Retirement Planning Software.
Maybe your life doesn’t play out like either one of those models. That’s okay. What we are trying to do here is get a general idea of how to think through these processes. Just remember, you want to be smart about the information you choose to use for the basis of your planning, so that the output will be as accurate as possible. Obviously, my father-in-law will have different spending allocations living to 75 years old versus living to 85 years old, and he wants to be mindful of that so that he doesn’t run out of money that is available to him. That is why it is so important to take the time at the beginning, to get the most realistic picture of your future, (with the understanding that it could be completely wrong and we won’t know if we made the right choice until well after the fact).
I am not a New Year’s resolution type of person. Instead, I like to make changes in my life throughout the year, when I realize something needs improvement. That being said, I keep telling Jill that “2025 Greg” is going to be awesome. She has seen this game before and doesn’t have high expectations, but it is fun to dream about how I am going to rock the year. Hopefully all of you have had an amazing start to 2025. More thoughts from behind my desk in a couple of weeks...
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